TSR raises Atlantic storm forecast, while CSU holds steady
UK forecasting group expects 18 named storms, of which eight will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes
The season's accumulated cyclone energy is now 140
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has increased its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to 18 named storms, of which eight will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes.
A month ago, TSR said the current season would see 17 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The group has increased its forecast for the season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to 140 from the slightly-above-normal 125 predicted a month ago.
The main factor for the revision, TSR said, has been the slight weakening of trade winds in July, suggesting that more favourable conditions for hurricane formation may persist into the peak of the season in August and September.
The revised TSR forecast came days after the forecasting team at Colorado State University (CSU) stuck with its early-July forecast of 18 Atlantic named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The CSU team said the probability of at least one major hurricane hitting the continental US is 48% (versus the historic 140-year average of 43%); hitting the US east coast is 25% (21%); and hitting the US Gulf coast is 31% (27%).
